Below you can find more information on the research projects I have worked/am working on.


The Use of Alternative Reasons in Probabilistic Judgment

In a series of probabilistic judgment tasks we look at the individual differences in actively open-minded thinking (AOT) via self-report and behavioral measures. When subjects answered questions incorrectly, high behavioral AOT scores were associated with better accuracy. High behavioral AOT scores were also associated with lower overconfidence. Telling subjects to consider alternative reasons led to better accuracy when they answered the questions incorrectly compared to subjects who were not told to do so. A short online training in AOT increased subjects’ scores on both AOT measures. We also observed some improvement in training subjects' accuracy and decrease in their overconfidence compared to control subjects.

My full dissertation can be found here: The Use of Alternative Reasons in Probabilistic Judgment


  • Baron, J., Gürçay, B., & Luce, M. F. (accepted pending revision). Correlations of trait and state emotions with utilitarian judgments, Cognition & Emotion.
  • Baron, J., Gürçay, B., & Metz, S.E. (in press). Reflection, intuition, and actively open-       minded thinking. In J. Weller & M. Toplak (Eds.) Individual Differences in Judgment and Decision Making from a Developmental Context, Psychology Press.
  • Baron, J., & Gürçay, B. (2016). A meta-analysis of response-time tests of the sequential two-systems model of moral judgment, Memory & Cognition, DOI: 10.3758/ s13421-016-0686-8.
  • Gürçay, B., & Baron, J. (2016). Challenges for the sequential two-systems model in moral judgment, Thinking & Reasoning, DOI:10.1080/13546783.2016.1216011.
  • Gürçay, B., Mellers, B.A., & Baron, J. (2014). The power of social influence on             estimation accuracy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1843.
  • Mellers, B. A., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gürçay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S., Moore, D., Atanasov, P., Swift, S., Murray, T., & Tetlock, P.E. (2014). Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, Vol. 25 (5), 1106-1115.
  • Baron, J., Gürçay, B., Moore, A.B., & Starcke, K. (2012). Use of a Rasch model to predict response times to utilitarian moral dilemmas. Synthese, Vol. 189 (1), 107-117.

Manuscripts Under Review or Revision:

  • Gürçay, B., & Baron, J. The use of alternative reasons in probabilistic judgment. (manuscript in preparation)
  • Gürçay, B. Allais Paradoxes with learned probabilities. (revise and resubmit at Journal of Judgment and Decision Making)